• Could Humans Handle An Alien Invasion in 2099?

    by
    SPACE: 2099 Team
    Published on 04-12-2012 10:37 PM
    2 Comments Comments

    Senior Space 2099 Member al-feersum mentioned on the forums that:

    Something that's been bugging me for some time is the likelihood that we, as a species, would ever encounter aliens with advanced technology.

    There are so many people claiming CE3-6, yet before Lowell misinterpreted Schiaparelli's maps and Wells wrote 'War of the Worlds', there were no aliens. And after WWII and the various 'mysterious sightings' from pilots, and the subsequent events of the 'Roswell Incident', aliens appear to be visiting us every damned day.

    But lets look at the science.

    The Drake Equation attempts to identify how many technologically advanced civilisations that are willing to communicate could exist. The formula is based on the number of stars in any given galaxy, the number of planets etc.

    Based on current ideology, and pessimistic but realistic figures, i.e. advanced life is rare, then we could be potentially alone in the galaxy. Slightly more optimistic, there could be just two other civilisations in the whole galaxy willing and able to communicate. Someone who wants to see life in our galaxy could argue. That's great - we can do the maths and say 'Yeah! It's probable that there are other civilisations out there! We could meet 'em!'

    But all this pales into insignificance when we consider the Fermi Paradox, which effectively states: 'if there are all those intelligent species out there, then why haven't we seen them?'

    So... whilst I personally wouldn't suggest that we are 'alone' in the galaxy, I would suggest that technologically advanced life is incredibly rare.

    Here's a look at the math as Originally Posted by 'pedia

    ...making some more optimistic assumptions, assuming that planets are common, life always arises when planets are favorable, 10% of civilizations become willing and able to communicate, and then spread through their local star systems for 100,000 years (a very short period in geologic time):


    R* = 20/year, fp = 0.5, ne = 2, fl = 1, fi = 0.1, fc = 0.1, and L = 100,000 years

    N = 20 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.1 × 0.1 × 100,000 = 20,000

    (there are quite a few civilizations, and the closest one would be about 350 light years away based on N/R^2=1/r^2 where R is the radius on the galaxy and 1/r^2 is the average area that contains one galaxy).

    Another senior member mlindroo chimes in:

    This is yet another reason why Space:2099 requires a network of wormholes (or similar) created by some Mysterious Unseen Force for a purpose. It does not matter if the nearest ETs are billions of light years away in that case. All the interesting places of the universe would be deliberately interconnected in that case.

    One interesting by-product of the Fermi Paradox seems to be that any extraterrestrial civilization encountered by man ought to be fantastically advanced as it most likely has existed for millions of years. Archaeological remains of dead civilizations may be more common.

    Arthur C Clarke explored both concepts in "2001 A Space Odyssey." Another interesting idea is moderately advanced civilizations such as ours could represent just a fleeting transitional stage...we will either destroy ourselves (see THE TESTAMENT OF ARKADIA) or rapidly evolve into something beyond comprehension to modern man.
    DISCUSS: So what are we to make over the definition of intelligent life? Are we too limited by our own world to envision a comprehensive understanding of alien life forms, or perhaps is our definition of "space" and "alien life" lacking enough specificity?

    Is space a physical border that divides the Earth's elements with that of the rest of the galaxy or is it simply an artificial construct that allows us to ignore possibilities that could distract us from our daily tasks on Earth?

    If Space 2099 were to focus on exploring human interactions with different species, would that tell us more or less about who we are as humans?
    This article was originally published in blog: Could Humans Handle An Alien Invasion in 2099? started by SPACE: 2099 Team
    Comments 2 Comments
    1. al feersum's Avatar
      al feersum - 04-13-2012, 06:14 AM
      Quote Originally Posted by SPACE: 2099 Team View Post
      So what are we to make over the definition of intelligent life? Are we too limited by our own world to envision a comprehensive understanding of alien life forms, or perhaps is our definition of "space" and "alien life" lacking enough specificity?
      Well... I'd say we were pretty anthropocentric. "If it isn't a tool-using warm-blooded bipedal hunter with opposable thumbs, then it isn't smart." This is the wrong way to define intelligent life. As mentioned in my original post, an ant isn't very bright - it just follows some basic rules, but the colony could be considered fairly intelligent in comparison. Have a look at Orson Scott Card's "Enders Game" - the 'Buggers' attacked Earth because they thought humans were effectively a 'queenless' hive - we were all single units without an organising central control. They didn't realise that we were each highly intelligent individuals. So on our encounters, how would we recognise intelligence if it didn't conform to our own assumptions?

      Not even 100 years ago, we treated some individuals differently because they had different colour skin. Sure, we've come a long way since then, but the ignorance still knocks around in pockets, passed down from generation to generation. And even now, there are people that refuse to accept evolution as a fact. With this kind of attitude built in to our very existence through centuries of religious indoctrination, how do you think our first encounter with another intelligent species will go?

      On the plus side, I think an alien encounter will unify humanity as a species - we'll forget our differences and prejudices, and evolve socially to become the 'human brotherhood'. Faith, skin colour, sexuality, language and origin won't matter any more. We'll have something else to direct our hatred at.

      Quote Originally Posted by SPACE: 2099 Team View Post
      Is space a physical border that divides the Earth's elements with that of the rest of the galaxy or is it simply an artificial construct that allows us to ignore possibilities that could distract us from our daily tasks on Earth?
      Right now, it's a bit of both. Once we can get out of the well, it'll still be a psychological barrier - until someone else comes knocking on the door.

      Quote Originally Posted by SPACE: 2099 Team View Post
      If Space 2099 were to focus on exploring human interactions with different species, would that tell us more or less about who we are as humans?
      Depends on how it was done. It is inevitable that anthropocentricity will be the basis of these interactions. If done well, it'll show us how nasty we can be, but by the same token can also show open minded and accepting we could be. Trek seemed to take the attitude of 'shoot first, negotiate later', where '1999 (apart from 'War Games') was more along the lines of 'we want to talk to you, can you help us get home?' - amazing how attitudes change in just a few years, but I think this was more down to British cultural sensitivities influencing the storylines. But the world has changed a lot since the '60s and '70s, and this must be taken into account when developing the storylines for '2099.

      How much will human society change over the next 80 or so years? Will we become more insular through the threat of persecution from religious ideology? (This isn't really much different from the same ideas of threat from political ideologies from the '30s onwards) Will our economies stutter and fail, causing us to lose some of the technological initiatives that are currently on the drawing board? Will we be on the brink of the singularity? Will we be on the brink of knocking ourselves back into the stone age? Will the super-rich become Methuselahs, constantly renewing their bodies with either life extension technologies or fresh clones, leaving everybody else to die naturally? What about the 'surveillance society'? Will there be a public backlash against this?

      Over the next few years, these things (and others) will shape our society, but as this shaping is emergent, we can't really predict it. Though done well, speculation could be incredibly realistic and could even shape our own future.
    1. EJD1984's Avatar
      EJD1984 - 04-15-2012, 03:33 PM
      If Space 2099 were to focus on exploring human interactions with different species, would that tell us more or less about who we are as humans?
      That is nearly identical to the premise of the original Star Trek (which isn't a bad thing). Though I would approach it from the angle that if we(Alpha) does encounter other lifeforms, they don't always have to be more advanced as us. And some that are encountered may join the moon on it's journey (establishing their own base somewhere else on the moon), and maybe not by out invitation. Would could lead to some sort of tension/conflict as well.

      Though a subtle plot-line that could be threaded throughout the series is that the 2099 moon "explosion" may have been caused by an outside force, that is watching/guiding the moon-base to an ultimate purpose/conclusion.